I was thinking about my season preview for the NHL and I realized that there appears to be little difference between last season’s final standings and this season’s assumptions. The top 5 in the East are almost set in stone (the exception being New Jersey dropping off) – Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly and Carolina all seem like mortal locks for the playoffs. This group should be tight, with Carolina maybe being closer to the bottom of the pack than this group of elite teams. As always, the difference between the 7th team and the 12th will probably be less than 10 points, which makes picking the bottom playoff teams more contentious. The only team that everyone agrees totally stinks is the Islanders.
Interestingly, no one seems to doubt that the Bruins will repeat as Northeast division champs (besides Habs fans). Losing Kessel’s 36 goals hurts, but I think this team is so deep, it won’t matter. Bergeron should score more, Sturm will be back for a full season after only playing in about 20 games last year, they have the ageless Recchi for the entirety of the season, Krejci, Lucic, and Wheeler should all improve and they added Derek Morris to upgrade their defensive scoring. So, yes, there may be a slight dip, but no one else in the Northeast improved enough to take the B’s down. The only real questions are if they will make a splash, using some of their picks from the Kessel deal to go after an Ilya Kovalchuk and if they matured enough to take the next step.
The Caps, like the B’s, should cruise to a division title. Everyone knows that they’re going to score. Add in Mike Knuble, who finally seems to be getting his due as one of the best gritty goal scorers, and their powerplay could be around 25%. Their goaltending is still questionable and relies on either a rookie, Varlamov, or an enigmatic veteran, Theodore. Combined with a lack of defensive stoppers, it’s hard to imagine this team making a run at the Cup.
As the Cup champs with the most dynamic forward duo in the league, it’s no surprise that a lot of people see Pittsburgh as a potential repeat champion. Crosby could become more prolific this season, as he finally has solid linemates in late-season acquisitions Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin. Their powerplay will be better with a full season of Sergei Gonchar. I think that Jay McKee will serve as a reasonable replacement for Rob Scuderi, so they only thing holding them back is the potential Stanley Cup hangover.
I always love it when everyone agrees that a team should be the pick to win, but then goes against that team, claiming that everyone else should have realized this error (resulting in no one actually picking them to win). Obviously, this would be the Flyers, who now have two shutdown D pairs. Strangely, they are still operating on the same premise of the Lindros era – rely on your skaters and hope it overcomes goaltending issues. More so than any other recent seasons, their goaltending is a huge question mark. Ray Emery was always up-and-down, with one good playoff run to his credit. Given his mercurial nature, I thought it would have made sense to invest in a solid backup, but they instead went with Brian Boucher, who was run out of town a few years earlier. This team’s goal is strictly to make a Cup run, but I just wouldn’t trust Emery or the discipline of this thuggish group.
After the top 4, Carolina is probably in the next tier. The pressure is on Cam Ward to put up consistent seasons and I think he’s the difference between this team challenging Washington for the division and their missing the playoffs altogether. Obviously Staal is the team’s best player by a wide margin, but they have a ton of forward depth, which makes up for this. Eric Cole was rejuvenated upon returning to the Canes at the deadline, before crapping out in the playoffs. His play could also be a huge difference maker for where they finish.
This is where things get fuzzier. A lot of people love New Jersey, but they lost a few key players – Rupp, Gionta, and Madden – and I really, really do not buy that Brodeur is still an elite goaltender. If Jacques LeMaire successfully reinstitutes his defensive trap, or some variation thereof, it will make Brodeur’s job easier, but could also hinder the effectiveness of Zach Parise. Regardless, this team is not as good as the top 4 in the Conference.
No one knows what to make of the Habs, since they come into the season with 1/3 of an entirely new roster and a new, old coach. This is Carey Price’s make-or-break season, in the last year of his rookie contract. If he fails to regain some semblance of his rookie year form, I think the fans in Montreal would crucify Bob Gainey for re-signing him. In essence, it should also be a make-or-break year for Gainey, especially after the total of debacle of their centennial. The defense in front of Price, particularly the new acquisitions – Gill, Mara, and Spacek – is suspect. Cammalleri is a scary good goal scorer, but without Iginla on his wing, other teams will focus more defensive attention on him. Unless Price has a total meltdown, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, they should eke into the playoffs.
The Sabres looked like a playoff last year, until Ryan Miller got hurt. Spacek was their top offensive defenseman and they do not have anyone to replace him. Depending on Miller’s workload at the Olympics, he may not be able to carry them again.
Like so many others, the Senators are hoping that they found an answer in goal, bringing in the oft-injured Pascal Leclaire. Corey Clouston seemed to change the losing dynamic around this team when he came in late in the season, with the exodus of Dany Heatley being a mixed blessing. They will miss his goal scoring, but he clashed with Coulston and did not buy into the system. If they had made the deal with Edmonton, I might have put them higher, but based on the meager return from San Jose, I don’t think they have enough consistent performers.
Why does Glen Sather have a job when nearly 10% of the population is out of work? Every time I write about the Rangers, I have to mention what a terrible executive Sather is. I also hate the fact that the Rangers still think they can operate in their pre-cap model of perpetually being rumored as a landing spot for every player in the league. Sather has continually mismanaged their cap (see the deals for Gaborik, Drury, Gomez, and Redden) while attempting to add more big names. I will give him credit for going after the best goal scorer on the market, but, even if healthy, how much does Gaborik improve a team that eked into the playoffs last year and has been carried by goalie Henriq Lundquist for years?
The Leafs were tough to play against last season, but their D and especially their goaltending left a lot to be desired. I think Burke needs another summer to get this team into serious contention, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them muscle into the postseason give their massive D upgrade. Gustavsson looks like the real-deal in net, which has to be a huge relief to Leafs’ fans, especially after how brutal The Vesa was in the preseason. I’m not exactly sure about why Burke was so keen on Kessel – I know he likes American kids who played in the NCAA’s, but Kessel is certainly not truculent and proved in Boston that unless he is being fed by an elite playmaker, he’s only a 20-ish goal scorer (plus he won’t even play until Nov. or Dec.). Jason Blake looked like his normal self last year with Grabovski and Ponikorovsky both rounding into decent scorers.
Thrashers fans, which are reasonably well-represented on the blogosphere, are decidedly optimistic about their team’s chances. Like the Leafs, they are deceptively better on offense than most people realize. Everyone knows about Kovalchuk, but it’s contributions from guys like Bryan Little and newly acquired Nik Antropov that help the forwards corps. Add in rookie Evander Kane and the contributions from the blue line of Zach Bogosian, Ron Hainsey, and Pavel Kubina, and this could be one of the top offensive teams in the league. Their problem remains goaltending, which has been inconsistent, given Kari Lehtonen’s inability to stay healthy. It helps that they play in such a crap division, which could pad their win totals, but unless Lehtonen gives them something, Kovalchuk will likely leave at the end of the season (if not sooner).
You have to love ESPN – they had Tampa at #10 on their first power rankings. Why they even bother to cover hockey remains a mystery, especially after John Buccigross’ Dany Heatley 3-way trade report. Any hoo, after not having enough defensemen last year, and getting blasted for it, they went out and added more than a full complement, tampering with and vastly overpaying for Mattias Ohlund. Marty St. Louis will likely be on the trading block, since LeCavalier’s no-trade clause kicked in over the summer. No one knows what to expect in net from Mike Smith, who has proven relatively fragile, and they have major depth issues among their forwards. It would take a major overachievement to make the playoffs.
Give the Panthers credit – they could have dealt away Jay Bouwmeester at the deadline, but they held onto him, in the hopes of making the playoffs. They fell out of contention in the final games of the season and Bouwmeester left. They still have a nice group of young forwards and Tomas Voukon, who was very solid in net last year. There definitely a lack of scoring depth beyond Horton and Booth and the defense is pretty atrocious, being led by Brian McCabe.
There’s no doubt that the Islanders stink, but they at least managed to draft franchise center John Tavares. Unfortunately for Tavares, likely linemate Kyle Okposo was practically decapitated by Dion Phaneuf in the preseason. The bigger injury issue is with Rick DiPietro, who still has 12 years remaining on his contract, only played 5 games last season and has no apparent return date. The good news is that Scott Gordon is one of the best developers of young talent (see: Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci), so Tavares should come along very nicely.