I haven’t written about football here since my foreboding and cryptic preview last season. I really didn’t want to write about the fact that not only was I right about Brady suffering an injury, but also that it happened in the first half of the first game of the season. For a Patriots fan, it was the nightmare scenario. Regardless of the success Matt Cassell had, last season was essentially a throw-away, leading to a painfully long wait for meaningful football action.
Does anyone believe that the Pats will fail to win the East? Even without Tom Brady last year the managed to tie for the division. The offense is even more stacked than when it set a ton of records in 2007, but the spread of weapons is better – better group of backs and TE’s, especially Chris Baker. The defense remains a question, as it gets progressively younger, particularly after the Seymour trade. The biggest issues are 3rd down conversion, consistent pressure, and playmaking/turnovers. In part, the last two rely heavily on what scheme Belichik opts for (4-3 v. 3-4) and how he deploys the players in the schemes. If they 4-3, expect Adalius Thomas to show better pass-rush skills. I would also be intrigued to see Vince Wilfork play tackle in the 4-3. The defensive backfield could be an achilles if Brandon Meriweather is not able to play more physically, filling Rodney Harrison’s role. Brady looked solid in the preseason, but clearly had his issues, missing blocking assignments and showing an aversion to being hit. How quickly he can overcome these minor concerns will determine just how good the Pats will be.
The rest of the East is a little murky. The Dolphins shocked everyone last year, relying on Pennington’s efficient short passing and the Wildcat formation. By the time they ran into Baltimore in the playoffs, it was clear that the league had caught-on. They added on defense, in an attempt to compete with Brady and the Pats, but they should definitely take a step back. Is there a more annoying coach than Rex Ryan? The guy just can’t help but say stupid shit, even though he’s never won a game as a head coach. How long before he’s bickering with the NY media? In his defense, he’s trying to mold the Jets using a classic formula – offense predicated on running and a dynamic, blitz-happy defense. The problem is that Mark Sanchez has little help at receiver, so teams can load-up against the run. Plus, his defensive scheme is rather complicated and may take a while to fully implement (assuming the inherited personnel can even run it). Somehow Dick Jauron survived last season and, unfortunately for him, he now has to deal with TO (and no offensive coordinator!). Good luck with that. Lee Evens should be able to emerge as a superstar, as teams will have to focus on Owens more, but without Marshawn Lynch to start the season, the pressure falls on the passing game and their all-new offensive line. The defense is pretty good, but not good enough against teams like Miami and New England.
The North should be a two-team affair, with the Steelers and Ravens as the class of the division (and among the best of the AFC). Because the normal AFC frontrunners – Pats, Colts, Bolts – were banged-up, the Steelers relied on their defense and a decent mix of offense to win the Super Bowl. I still don’t trust Roethlisburger enough to fear him, but the emergence of Santonio Holmes should worry other teams about more than just the running game. They had issues with health last year, so if those injuries catch-up to this year, it could be difficult to defend. The Ravens, who will likely make the playoffs, could win this division or could drop-off precipitously. Rex Ryan took a lot of defensive players with him to NY, but this team has survived turnover before, and now is just elevating subs to starters. I am curious to see if Joe Flacco’s role is expanded this year, or if they continue to rely on defense and running. Then you reach the perpetual messes of the Browns and Bengals. Cleveland replaced Crennel with the guy who studied under him in New England, which means that a shitty defense won’t changing much. Only TO knows who the starting QB is (huh?), Braylon Edwards drops a billion passes and they traded their pain-in-the-ass, but good catching TE. The Bengals decided to try to fix their O-line, but the guy they drafted held-out, then showed up overweight, then broke his foot because he was so fat. They replaced Houshmandzedah with Lavernius Coles, which isn’t a step forward, and Ochocinco is hoping to celebrate his touchdowns via Twitter. Sounds fun! Throw in Tank Johnson on D and this team is suddenly Dallas Cowboys crazy.
Do the Titans win the South by default? At present, they look like the most stable team, which says a lot considering they still have Vince Young on their roster. They were a lot like Pittsburgh and Baltimore – relying on the running game and a physical defensive front. Losing Albert Haynesworth was huge, but they have enough quality among their D-Line and linebackers to cruise in this division. The Colts took a big step backwards last year, mostly due to injuries, but then had an uncharacteristically turbulent offseason, with the coaching staff turnover. Tom Moore’s semi-retirement will hurt Peyton, but he’s enough of a veteran and they so many weapons that it shouldn’t hurt too much. The biggest issue the level of discontent with new coach Jim Caldwell, who has alienated a lot of people in the organization. Their defense was shaky last year, so there is extra pressure on Manning to carry the load. The Texans have been listed as a potential sleeper ever since acquiring Matt Schaub, but have never lived up to the hype. Schaub’s health has been a major factor in their inability to make the playoffs, despite being pretty loaded. Depending on the Colts and Titans, this could finally be the year they make the Wild Card. The Jags are in a strange place, because most of the players seem to loathe Jack del Rio. I’m not sure that they can right their ship, in a reasonably tough division, until he’s gone. David Garrard finally has a real receiver to throw to, a washed-up Tori Holt, which should help their offense, but won’t make much of a difference in their order of finish.
Like last year, the Chargers win the West, because everyone else stinks. San Diego suffered through a lot of injuries and the inconsistent play of Tomlinson, who has fallen off very rapidly. I think they missed their chance to trade him for reasonable valuable, but they at least still have Sproles to pick-up the slack. If they remain healthy and if Tomlinson returns to 3/4′s of his former self, they could jump into the group of top teams in the AFC. I’m not even sure who the next best team in this division is. I’ll say Denver, simply because, in spite of Josh McDaniel’s inability to manage his players, I think they have the best offense. Kyle Orton finally has a chance to prove that he’s a capable QB and if Brandon Marshall is happy, with the latest saying he wants an extension, Orton could prove to be among the elite in the league. A month ago I might have picked the Chiefs, but with the firing of their offensive coordinator and the injury to Cassell, they could be in big trouble. There was an understandable amount of turnover on their roster, so it might take a few seasons to see improvement. The Raiders remain a mess, with an out-of-shape, semi-crappy QB and athe perpetual bickering of the coach and front-office. If Richard Seymour decides to show up, they could have a decent defense. Realistically, the Chiefs and Raiders are battling for better draft position.